Links are not yet activated.
Is this your press release? Add a link to submitpr.org on your website and verify it — activation is instant and free.
Or upgrade once for permanent activation (from $19.95, pay with crypto).
WASHINGTON, DC, October 31, 2026 - Russia's economy under sanctions is the focus of a new analysis by William Aaron Turner, founder and president of Infinitum Corporation. The piece, "Russia's Economy Under Sanctions: GDP, Aid, Stalemate," is Part 2 of 8 in The Ukraine Files series and sets out, in a structured and searchable format, the economic record of the sanctions campaign and the strategy Turner believes Russia is following.The post is the structured version of Turner's X Article "The Art of Not Giving a F*ck." "Four and a half years in, the West's biggest bet on Ukraine has produced a stalemate that, in my reading, increasingly favors Moscow," Turner writes.
The economic record, as cited in the analysis
GDP forecast: The European Commission raised its 2026 forecast for Russian GDP growth from 1.1 percent to 1.3 percent, stating that the forecast "reflects recognition of Russia's economic resilience."
Official outlook: Russia's Ministry of Economic Development expects 0.4 percent growth in 2026 and 1.4 percent in 2027.
Reform targets: According to the article, Russia's economic transformation plan hit 12 of 14 targets for the first half of 2026, eight of them ahead of schedule.
Domestic demand: The Commission itself credited "relatively resilient private consumption" and a "persistently tight labour market."
How the article says Russia adapted
Shipping: By May 2026 the EU had sanctioned 632 vessels linked to Russia's shadow fleet, and 48 percent of Russia's seaborne oil moved on shadow tankers that month.
Trade reorientation: The post describes a pivot toward Asia, with China and India as large buyers, and notes that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation covers nearly a quarter of the world's landmass and 42 percent of the global population.
The cost to Europe: The analysis quotes the EU's own forecast, which noted that "the macroeconomic imbalances that built over the last years have widened, exacerbated by sanctions." Turner reads that as evidence that the economic pain also landed heavily on Europe.
The battlefield and casualties
The post cites the Institute for the Study of War's view that Russia's 2026 offensive "failed to achieve operational maneuver," adding: "My point is that slow gains are still gains." It reports about 90.35 square kilometers taken in August 2026 against 505.55 in August 2025, and Ukrainian operations liberating about 129.81. CSIS estimates Russian deaths could be as high as 450,000 and Ukrainian combat losses at 525,000 to 625,000, and puts the loss ratio in the first half of 2026 at nearly 8-to-1. The article cites 126,400 Ukrainian AWOL and desertion cases in the first seven months of 2026 and flags a discrepancy in Zelensky's fatality figures. Putin is quoted: "Victory has always been ours and will always be ours." Turner's answer: "Russia is not winning quickly, but in a war of attrition, the side that can absorb pain longer wins."
Ukraine's drone campaign
The article argues Ukraine has widened strikes to civilian infrastructure, including Ozon and Wildberries warehouses and residential areas in Belgorod, killing 45 people since the start of 2026 per Russian sources, and cites 548 drones toward Moscow on September 2-3, 2026. Turner argues the strikes legitimize Russian strikes and unite Russians behind the war. A separate section collects claims from named commentators, including Jeffrey Sachs, that Zelensky acts in the interests of Western intelligence.
A divided coalition
The post reviews the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which counts more than fifty countries, and the funding questions inside it. It cites Germany's roughly 94 billion euros in support since February 2022, a proposed NATO aid target of 0.25 percent of GDP that met resistance from the UK and France, and the article's finding that European sponsors provided only 10 billion euros of a planned 40 billion euros. It notes Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic balked at funding, Poland opposed Germany's proposal to move 6.6 billion euros to Ukraine, and the U.S. suspended and later resumed aid and intelligence sharing.
Turner's conclusion
Turner labels his conclusion as his own argument: "Russia is winning in the sense of not losing while its adversaries drain themselves, and I argue the sanctions and aid strategy has not delivered its stated goals." He acknowledges that the mainstream view differs and encourages readers to review the sources and decide for themselves. The post closes with a reference list organized by theme.
Read the full analysis:
https://ukrainianfiles.blogspot.com/2026/10/russia-economy-sanctions-gdp-aid.html
About Infinitum Corporation
Infinitum Corporation is a technology and security consulting firm headquartered in Washington, DC (1629 K Street NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006), with Moscow as an operating location. It provides cybersecurity consulting, network defense, ethical hacking and vulnerability assessment, AI applications for security operations, strategic risk assessment, defense technology advisory and Corporate Cognitive Warfare. Open Monday–Friday, 9:00 AM–9:00 PM; closed Saturday and Sunday. Phone 202-729-9509. info@theinfinitumcorporation.com. https://www.theinfinitumcorporation.com