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WASHINGTON, DC, November 2, 2026 - Infinitum Corporation is directing risk, compliance and investment teams to "Russia's State-Influenced Capitalism: Sanctions-Proof, War-Proof, and Chaos-Proof," Special Edition 01 in its free whitepaper series, as a single sourced reference on how forecasts for Russia's economy compared with results.The paper, by William Aaron Turner, Founder & President of Infinitum Corporation, is built around one gap. In April 2022 the IMF projected that Russia's economy would shrink 8.5 percent that year. The IMF's current figures show a contraction of 1.4 percent in 2022, followed by growth of 4.1 percent in 2023 and 4.9 percent in 2024.
For teams that price country risk, Turner argues, that gap is a lesson in method. The paper asks what the original models missed and works through the record with every figure attributed to its source.
It covers the 1990s baseline from World Bank data, when real GDP fell 44 percent and prices rose 874 percent in 1993. It notes, citing Castellum.AI, that Russia has faced more than twice as many sanctions designations as Iran, Syria and North Korea combined. It sets out IMF figures for 2025 showing public debt at 16.6 percent of GDP and unemployment at 2.2 percent.
The paper is presented as the author's argued position, and it gives the other side a full chapter. That chapter addresses inflation, a 14 percent key rate, growth slowing to 1.0 percent, the military burden, demographics and corruption perception, so readers can weigh both cases on the same evidence.
Special Edition 01 sits alongside the series' first paper, "Dead Reckoning: AI for Security Operations," and Infinitum Corporation's strategic risk assessment practice. Like every paper in the series, it is free, and readers are encouraged to check each number against its source.
Read the whitepaper: https://infinitumwhitepapers.blogspot.com/2026/10/russia-state-influenced-capitalism.html
"When a forecast misses by that much, the sensible question is what the model missed. If you make decisions about Russia as an executive, a risk lead, an investor or a policymaker, read it before the next consensus forecast." said William Aaron Turner, Founder & President of Infinitum Corporation.
About Infinitum Corporation
Infinitum Corporation is a technology and security consulting firm headquartered in Washington, DC (1629 K Street NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006), with Moscow as an operating location. It provides cybersecurity consulting, network defense, ethical hacking and vulnerability assessment, AI applications for security operations, strategic risk assessment, defense technology advisory and Corporate Cognitive Warfare. Open Monday–Friday, 9:00 AM–9:00 PM; closed Saturday and Sunday. Phone 202-729-9509. info@theinfinitumcorporation.com. https://www.theinfinitumcorporation.com | Telegram: https://t.me/infinitumcorporation
Media contact: William Aaron Turner, Founder & President, Infinitum Corporation, Washington, DC. Phone 202-729-9509. Email infinitum-media@mail.grokbot.com